Olympic Marathon Preview
26.2 Miles, to determine who has the greatest grit.
The Route
This is going to be tough.
My legs hurt just looking at that elevation profile. Right before the midway point is a 485 ft (143 meters) climb that is sure to be a breaking point for several of the most elite athletes in this field.
This course presents an interesting challenge for runners because it seems that in the first 15 km (9.3 miles) there is not too much elevation change, and then runners appear to run straight up as they make their way out of Paris proper and towards the beautiful Château de Versailles. With a max gradient of 13.5% and a steady incline otherwise that will last about 4 miles, this is not a course to take lightly.
The course itself practically screams “tactical race.” The course provides many beautiful views of historic and cultural landmarks across Paris and the countryside. I hope athletes have done their sightseeing before so that they don’t get caught in awe of sights like the Eiffel Tower, The Louvre, or the Gardens at Versailles. Even those of us at home can get a beautiful, digital view of these sites with this wonderfully produced video from the Paris Olympics:
While the incline will be the great equalizer for the field, there are plenty of opportunities to attack and try to break away from the field. Runners will need to decide whether it is worth an early injection of pace before the hills or to attack the downhill back into the City of Paris. However, no matter how the race shakes out, the true joy will be if we have a sprint-to-the-finish running down the iconic Esplanade des Invalides towards the Hôtel itself and finishing in front of the iconic dome.
Now to the Races Themselves
Women’s Marathon:
This field is STACKED!!!
With Marathon World Record holder Tigst Assefa in the field, it might seem hard to go against her for the win. Her record is almost 2 minutes ahead of any other woman in the field, making her seem in the best shape. However, her 2:16:23 in London back in April suggests she is trying to peak at the right time for these Olympics.
That is (and this WILL be a theme) if it weren’t for this hill. While the East African teams only have three Olympians each and make up the majority of the international top times, there are so many women in this field who have dropped times under 2:23. Considering the course profile, there is a low likelihood that the winning time will be below the Olympic qualifying standard (2:26:50).
In many of the World Majors, especially hillier ones like Boston and New York, tactical races in the women’s field favor a more bunched field throughout the race. While there are exceptions, the women tend to leave the attacking for pivotal points in the race. Just look at a Boston recap to see how Helen Obiri attacked to get the win. I think there will be very little desire for anyone to attack for the first 15km while they make their way out of Paris. We may not even see an attack until 35km when they reenter the city.
With their amazing performances in Boston, Kenyan powerhouses, Helen Obiri and Sharon Lokedi will look to continue this form. Fellow countrywoman and defending Olympic gold medalist from Tokyo, Peres Jepchirchir, will also aim to assert Kenyan dominance in this event. However, Assefa, along with the other Ethiopians and Ugandans, will look to recapture the best of East Africa by capturing Olympic glory.
It's not all about the East Africans, though they do have quite a stranglehold on the event. Because it is a more tactical race, other dark horse competitors could emerge, much like Molly Seidel’s bronze medal in Tokyo that vaulted her into the pantheon of American marathoners. While not a dark horse, Sifan Hassan is one of the outliers at the top of women’s marathoning with her nationality being Dutch (Netherlands). I previewed Hassan in my track preview as she is taking on three of the longest individual distance events at these Olympics (she originally qualified for four, but has opted to do the 5000m, 10,000m, and Marathon).
I have high hopes for the Americans in this race and think that a medal could be possible with the right conditions, much like we saw in Tokyo when Molly Seidel won the bronze. Although the United States did not use its usual tactic of trying to mimic the marathon course at the trials, we still have three more than qualified women to take on this difficult course. Fiona O’Keefe won the trials with an impressive breakaway and will be well-primed if she can navigate the climbs well and be in place to follow a breakaway in the final 10km and show off her track speed. Emily Sisson is probably the most dominant women’s American marathoner in recent history. She will look to continue her dominant run of form and truly become one of the American greats. She already holds the American record and could cement her legacy (as if she needs to) with an Olympic medal. Finally, Dakotah Lindwurm will bring her optimism and infectious smile, alongside her never-give-up attitude that got her the third and final spot at the Trials, back in February. She has been crushing training recently, and like O’Keefe, if she can survive the hills, she can place herself in a prime position to be in the fight at the end.
When all is said and done, it would be nearly impossible to pick a winner, but one thing I do see is a packed field as they reenter Paris. Don’t get bored and turn this event off because it is the tactics that make this an exciting event, and it is so cool to see the race unfold.
The Women’s Marathon is on August 11 (the last official day of the Olympics and even the last event).
Men’s Marathon:
Can Kipchoge keep it going, or is it time to pass the torch?
This race, I think, has a bit more intrigue because for about the past decade, there has been one name to rule them all: Eliud Kipchoge. He has only lost four marathons since he started competing in the event in 2013, including being the 2x defending Olympic gold medalist (and probably would love to make that a three-peat). However, two of his losses have come in the last two calendar years, including his worst loss at the 2024 Tokyo Marathon earlier this spring.
Kipchoge is in a place where he is vulnerable, especially with the hillier course, which he has generally avoided during his career. Kipchoge tends to be a tactical runner but has been known to get antsy only when packs, especially bunched up. In 2021, during the Tokyo Olympic Marathon, Kipchoge was frustrated with American Galen Rupp for running close to him in a pack. I expect Kipchoge to slot in during the early miles and see how the race unfolds until they eclipse the climb unless his hand is forced.
However, it may be time for the symbolic torch to be passed in men’s marathoning. Now more than ever, there is a field queueing up behind Kipchoge, waiting for the right time to take down the GOAT. Sadly, the current world record holder, Kelvin Kiptum, died in a tragic car accident back in February. Otherwise, it would have been very entertaining to watch these two Kenyans battle it out in this race. Though the lack of what may seem like a steady challenger based on personal bests does not mean this is not a competitive field. Kipchoge’s Kenyan counterparts, Benson Kipruto, and Alex Munyao, both boast sub-2:05 marathons this year and even sub-2:03:30 personal bests.
The biggest challenge to the Kenyans appears to be the Ethiopians, who have two strong contenders. Kenenisa Bekele boasts a stellar career on the track and even a blistering 2:01:41 personal best. However, he has never been able to convert that to Olympic hardware. With the late scratch of Sisay Lemma, fellow countryman Tamirat Tola has been tasked with taking his place, and could work with Bekele, to attack the Kenyan side and bring home hardware for his native Ethiopia.
Unfortunately, men’s marathoning for America has fallen off in recent years, with the US struggling to even secure three spots via time or place qualifiers. However, even in down times, there are still bright spots to take away, and that truly is the friendship between the American marathoning duo of Conner Mantz and Clayton Young. It is hard to say if Mantz and Young will find themselves in medal contention. Both met the Olympic Standard (2:08:00) and have had great seasons and training cycles (Check out Clayton’s YouTube to see what it has been like for them). However, unless it is a more tactical race, it is hard to see an American medal. Though anything is possible, and much like the women, in the right conditions, I think both Mantz and Young could upset the East Africans and maybe even create chaos by attacking the climb. Since they both train in Provo, Utah, they are used to elevation and have experience with difficult climbs. I am sure their coach, Ed Eyestone, has had these two running hill repeats on repeat since they qualified back in February.
I’d love to see an American on the podium, but I am also a realist and an enjoyer of the sport. I would love it if we got a good, hard race by some of the best marathoners. I think the winning time will be around 2:05, probably akin to the times we see in New York and Boston. However, if someone like Bekele or Kipruto gaps the field before the climb, we could see something under that to break up the field.
The Men’s Marathon is on August 10, and an interesting thing about this is between the men’s and women’s marathon that is on August 10 (in the evening), the International Olympic Committee will host an all-comers marathon. That is basically like a local marathon where anyone could sign up and run the same course as the Olympians. Not gonna lie, that sounds awful, not just because it is a marathon but also because I am not used to that much elevation.
The Other Previews
Initially, I planned to keep it as one article, but I have too many thoughts to fit into just one (who is surprised?). So, I will cover this in a few different articles. I have linked the other articles here:
*Note: All athletes are linked with their World Athletics profiles